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RFC: Food and health section 2

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Which of the following versions should be used in the Food and health section? A is the current version in the article and B is the new version. This is a follow-up RfC. A previous RfC was conducted after a Dispute Resolution Noticeboard case. Version B below was preferred over another suggested new version, mainly due to length. In the previous RfC, the current version wasn't given as a specific option. Bogazicili (talk) 21:14, 23 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

A. Current version, 243 words

The World Health Organization (WHO) calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[1] Extreme weather leads to injury and loss of life.[2] Various infectious diseases are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as dengue fever and malaria.[3] Crop failures can lead to food shortages and malnutrition, particularly effecting children.[4] Both children and older people are vulnerable to extreme heat.[5] The WHO has estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change would cause around 250,000 additional deaths per year. They assessed deaths from heat exposure in elderly people, increases in diarrhea, malaria, dengue, coastal flooding, and childhood malnutrition.[6] By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population may face climate conditions that are life-threatening due to combined effects of extreme heat and humidity.[7]

Climate change is affecting food security. It has caused reduction in global yields of maize, wheat, and soybeans between 1981 and 2010.[8] Future warming could further reduce global yields of major crops.[9] Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[10] Up to an additional 183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of hunger as a consequence of these impacts.[11] Climate change also impacts fish populations. Globally, less will be available to be fished.[12] Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands have a higher risk of water stress due to climate change.[13]


B. Suggested new version, 235 words

The World Health Organization calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[1] Over 100 scientists writing in The Lancet have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.[2] Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security.[3][4]p. 9 Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death.[5][6] Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.[7]p.9 It can affect transmission of infectious diseases.[8] [9] According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.[10] 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.[11] By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.[12]p. 988

While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already slowed the rate of yield growth.p. 9 Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions.p. 9 Agricultural productivity was negatively affected in mid- and low-latitude areas, while some high latitude areas were positively affected. p.9 An increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children.[13] With 2C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7-10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.p.748 If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.p.63


C. Something else - Please provide a complete section.

Please enter A, B, or C (with the text) in the Survey. Please do not respond to the statements of other editors in the Survey.

Survey (Food and health 2)

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  • B as the nominator. Version B uses updated sources. It also uses a wide range of sources, such as IPCC, medical professionals (WHO), business community (World Economic Forum) and other scientists ("Over 100 scientists writing in The Lancet" sentence). Some of the changes were made to accommodate concerns during the Dispute Resolution Noticeboard process, such as the livestock headcounts sentence. Bogazicili (talk) 21:26, 23 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Discussion (Food and health 2)

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  • It might be helpful to provide a list of the exact differences between versions. I'd also separate out those that are minor or likely to be uncontroversial (e.g. the removal of the acronym WHO in the first sentence), and either add them to the current version first, or leave them out until afterwards. These are edits that probably don't need an RfC, but including them could mean that it's less clear what editors are being asked to evaluate. I'd also recommend formatting the references in the proposal to make it easier to compare them between versions. (This is a general comment on RfC structure, not related to my role as the closer of the previous RfC.) Sunrise (talk) 02:54, 25 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
    Sunrise, because we use short in-line references in this article, changing the references in the current version is a hassle. Some are also bundled references. So, honestly, I don't want to spend too much time on it. The references in the new version are directly accessible. If the new text is adopted, the reference format will be changed accordingly.
    About the differences, feel free to ask questions. To me, the main differences are:
    • Better summary in the new version.
    • Using 2024 World Economic Forum study in the new version.
    • Added baseline for the "By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population may face climate conditions..." sentence into the new version: "30% of the global population currently live in..."
    • I dropped any mention about global hunger projections in the new version. "Up to an additional 183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of hunger as a consequence of these impacts" comes from a 2019 IPCC source. Newer IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is more measured. But even Sixth Assessment Report contradicts a newer review article [14]. And that review article is published in Nature (journal), so it's a very high quality source. As such, any mention of global hunger in Wiki voice is dropped. I don't think there is any space to go over the differences in WP:Summary style, so a more limited and measured sentence is used ("An increase in drought in certain regions" )
    • "reduction in global yields of maize, wheat, and soybeans" is dropped because it contradicts [15] Bogazicili (talk) 19:02, 25 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • If it's a binary, please add wikilinks to Option B as well. (Climate change and fisheries a good new link to add.) Option B flows more smoothly, but there are some changes I wouldn't make. "Over 100 scientists writing in The Lancet have warned about the irreversible harms it poses" doesn't seem worth including, it provides no information to the reader other than 100 scientists agree climate change is an issue. Tangible examples of broad concepts, such as specific mention of diseases such as "dengue fever and malaria" help ground the general point. B also has two separate sentences on climate-related deaths, one per paragraph, which feels redundant. CMD (talk) 03:35, 25 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
    • Will add wikilinks if the text gets adopted.
    • "Over 100 scientists writing in The Lancet...": They are from different research institutions, not necessarily affiliated with IPCC, WHO, or governments. Using a wide variety of sources was one of my goals.
    • "two separate sentences on climate-related deaths" One is midterm (by 2050), the other is more long term (by 2100). Bogazicili (talk) 19:09, 25 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • It's a good idea to use newer sources and I like the overall flow of Option B. I agree with u:CMD that there's no need to mention "100 scientists", I'd replace it with "that poses irreversible harms." Alaexis¿question? 09:36, 25 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • Sunrise, Chipmunkdavis, Alaexis, any comments after explanation of changes above? Bogazicili (talk) 20:54, 29 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
For my part, I don't intend to comment on the merits. My intention was to give advice on how I think the RfC could be improved to make it more likely to be successful. I agree with CMD's comment that wikilinks should be added as well. Sunrise (talk) 22:00, 30 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • Chipmunkdavis and Alaexis, I implemented some of the changes you suggested. What do you think of below?

The World Health Organization calls climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[16] Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses.[17] Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security.[18][19]p. 9 Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death.[20][21] Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.[22]p.9 It can affect transmission of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria.[23] [24] According to the World Economic Forum, 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050.[25] 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths.[26] By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas.[27]p. 988

While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already slowed the rate of yield growth.p. 9 Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions.p. 9 Agricultural productivity was negatively affected in mid- and low-latitude areas, while some high latitude areas were positively affected. p.9 An increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children.[28] With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available.p.748 If the emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100.p.63

Bogazicili (talk) 19:49, 27 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I'd shift some tenses, but otherwise it reads well. CMD (talk) 05:20, 28 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Looks good! Alaexis¿question? 08:02, 29 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Great, I'll make the changes after a close request. Bogazicili (talk) 12:46, 30 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]
I have made the changes. There are few differences from above such as sourcing (dropped [29] since it's an editorial, and used [30] instead. Added [31]), copy editing, wikilinks etc. Bogazicili (talk) 18:34, 19 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

References

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References

References

  1. ^ WHO, Nov 2015
  2. ^ IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11 2014, pp. 720–723
  3. ^ Watts et al. 2019, pp. 1836, 1848.
  4. ^ Costello et al. 2009; Watts et al. 2015; IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11 2014, p. 713
  5. ^ Watts et al. 2019, pp. 1841, 1847.
  6. ^ WHO 2014: "Under a base case socioeconomic scenario, we estimate approximately 250 000 additional deaths due to climate change per year between 2030 and 2050. These numbers do not represent a prediction of the overall impacts of climate change on health, since we could not quantify several important causal pathways."
  7. ^ IPCC AR6 WG2 2022, p. 988
  8. ^ IPCC SRCCL Ch5 2019, p. 451.
  9. ^ Zhao et al. 2017; IPCC SRCCL Ch5 2019, p. 439
  10. ^ IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7 2014, p. 488
  11. ^ IPCC SRCCL Ch5 2019, p. 462
  12. ^ IPCC SROCC Ch5 2019, p. 503.
  13. ^ Holding et al. 2016; IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3 2014, pp. 232–233.

Semi-protected edit request on 14 October 2024

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Different regions may experience better or worse growing conditions for crops as a result of climate change. Temperature, rainfall, and frost-free days, for example, are all increasing the length of the growing season in practically every state. Longer growing seasons can benefit and hurt food production. Some farmers may be able to plant longer-maturing crops or more crop cycles entirely, when others may require additional rainfall during a longer, hotter growing season. Summiaarif (talk) 01:47, 14 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. JTP (talkcontribs) 02:28, 14 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Wildfires

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In the second paragraph of the lead, the second sentence states among other things that 'wildfires are becoming more common. ' Two sources are cited, one about wildfires. [1] While the idea behind the claim is correct, the claim itself is false. The IPCC source states that ' Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence)'. This is not the same as wildfires becoming more common. Actually, two sentences later the IPCC states 'Global land area burned has declined in recent decades, mainly due to less burning in grasslands and savannahs (high confidence). ' Instead of using a blanket claim about all wildfires, I propose that we focus on the thing that the IPCC actually says. The source states that 'future climate variability [is] expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence). ' This is a nice high confidence claim that illustrates the global warming-induced threat of wildfires.

Did you check the updated IPCC report, AR6 WG2 p.9: Observed increases in areas burned by wildfires have been attributed to human-induced climate change in some regions (medium to high confidence).? Bogazicili (talk) 15:17, 19 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Good point, it's important to check their latest update. This particular statement is in agreement with their 2017 report, in that some regions have more (and/or more severe) wildfires because of climate change. The 2022 report does not give a blanket statement about wildfires in general. Panoramics (talk) 15:55, 22 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]
However, they do say that further global warming will increase wildfires. For example, at page 55 of the technical summary of AR6 WG2, it says 'At a global warming of 2°C with associated changes in precipitation global land area burned by wildfire is projected to increase by 35% (medium confidence).' Panoramics (talk) 16:26, 22 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Carbon capture rates for CCS

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Hi everyone. I have a few proposals regarding statements on carbon capture and storage in this article. Here's my first proposal. We have an unsourced sentence that says:

Where energy production or CO2-intensive heavy industries continue to produce waste CO2, the gas can be captured and stored instead of released to the atmosphere.

I propose changing it to:

Where energy production or CO2-intensive heavy industries continue to produce waste CO2, technology can sometimes be used to capture and store most of the gas instead of releasing it to the atmosphere.[2]

As explained in the World Resources Institute source, "today’s carbon capture systems do not capture 100% of emissions. Most are designed to capture 90%, but reported capture rates are lower in some cases." Additionally, it is not economically or geologically feasible to deploy CCS at all or even most facilities. There are 2,400 coal power plants in the world and thus far we have managed to add CCS to four of them. Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 21:41, 24 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Done. Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 20:30, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

References

  1. ^ IPCC SRCCL 2019, p. 45: "Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence), with future climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence)."
  2. ^ Lebling, Katie; Gangotra, Ankita; Hausker, Karl; Byrum, Zachary (2023-11-13). "7 Things to Know About Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration". World Resources Institute.

Scale of CCS

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The article currently says:

Although its current use is limited in scale and expensive,[1] carbon capture and storage (CCS) may be able to play a significant role in limiting CO2 emissions by mid-century.[2]

I feel this sentence could use some attention for neutrality, to accurately reflect the expert consensus on realistic levels of expectations for CCS. The IEA describes "excessive expectations and reliance" on CCS and direct air capture as a common misconception.[3] By mid-century, it envisions CCS and direct air capture to mitigate 8% of energy sector emissions. The current pace of deployment of CCS is nowhere near meeting even that low target. The IPCC stated in 2022 that “implementation of CCS currently faces technological, economic, institutional, ecological-environmental and socio-cultural barriers.”[4]: 28 

The current sentence comes across as optimistic, in part because of the "Although..." construction which "can have the effect of calling the validity of the first statement into question while giving undue weight to the credibility of the second" (MOS:EDITORIAL). I'm not sure if the reader will understand what "currently limited in scale" means. CCS is currently capturing one one thousandth of anthropogenic GHG emissions.

I propose changing it to:

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has a small but critical role in reducing emissions.[5][6]: 28  It is relatively expensive[7]: 38  and is in operation at only 44 plants as of 2024.[8]

(I will make the citation formatting consistent with article style). Courtesy pings to Dtetta and Femke who were involved in this sentence. Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 01:05, 25 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think this goes in the right direction: I don't think "significant" is really justified based on current thinking. I have three qualms with the new proposal.
  • The WRI source says it "may" have a small but critical role
  • The IPCC says "CCS is an option .. ", again not saying it is definitely critical
I further doubt people understand what share of power is produced by 44 plants (0.1%, 5%?). We could be more vague here, to avoid maintenance issues.
I showed this proposal to someone in my team to explain how Wikipedia discussion works, and he noted that the 42 of the 44 plants are CCUS plants (so frequently used for enhanced oil recovery), which makes this feel too optimistic. —Femke 🐦 (talk) 17:59, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Thanks for looking into this and for engaging your team.
  • The IPCC uses the word critical on p. 28: ...as well as in cement and chemicals production, where it is a critical mitigation option. Later on p. 104 it says that for industry, alternatives to CCS are difficult to represent in models therefore the need for CCS may be overestimated. This may be justification for using a softer phrasing. We could copy from the WRI since it's CC-BY and say "could have a critical but limited role" - would that work?
  • Regarding 44 plants and the share of power produced by them, it's even worse than you think. Most of these plants are not power plants; the number of power plants using CCS is 5 (until this year it wavered between 1 and 2, and then China went and opened 3). Maybe instead of giving a number of plants we should say that CCS currently captures one thousandth of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions - is this clearer?
  • Regarding the fact that CCS usually means enhanced oil recovery, yep. And this is yet another reason to doubt the idea of CCS playing a significant role in limiting CO2 emissions by mid-century.
Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 19:06, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Much better, yes! Only a prose quabble left: I'd try to avoid the word anthropogenic. Instead, we could leave it out or say "human-made". —Femke 🐦 (talk) 19:24, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Done, thanks! Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 20:25, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

References

  1. ^ IPCC SR15 Ch4 2018, pp. 326–327; Bednar, Obersteiner & Wagner 2019; European Commission, 28 November 2018, p. 188
  2. ^ Bui et al. 2018, p. 1068.
  3. ^ "Executive summary – The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions – Analysis". IEA. Retrieved 2024-09-19.Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
  4. ^ IPCC (2022). Shukla, P.R.; Skea, J.; Slade, R.; Al Khourdajie, A.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (PDF). Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press (In Press). doi:10.1017/9781009157926. ISBN 978-1-009-15792-6.
  5. ^ Lebling, Katie; Gangotra, Ankita; Hausker, Karl; Byrum, Zachary (2023-11-13). "7 Things to Know About Carbon Capture, Utilization and Sequestration". World Resources Institute. Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
  6. ^ IPCC (2022). Shukla, P.R.; Skea, J.; Slade, R.; Al Khourdajie, A.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (PDF). Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press (In Press). doi:10.1017/9781009157926. ISBN 978-1-009-15792-6.
  7. ^ IPCC (2022). Shukla, P.R.; Skea, J.; Slade, R.; Al Khourdajie, A.; et al. (eds.). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (PDF). Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press (In Press). doi:10.1017/9781009157926. ISBN 978-1-009-15792-6.
  8. ^ "Global Status Report 2024". Global CCS Institute. pp. 57–58. Retrieved 2024-10-19. The report lists 50 facilities, of which 3 are direct air capture facilities and 3 are transport/storage facilities


Carbon sequestration section

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The Carbon sequestration section has contents that describe carbon dioxide removal and carbon capture and storage. These three concepts are often confused. The vast majority of carbon sequestration happens through spontaneous, non-anthropogenic processes that have been going on for hundreds of millions of years and will continue if we just leave the forests alone. Most of the content in this section is about human activity that aims to increase the amount of carbon that is sequestered, i.e. carbon dioxide removal. There is also some content on carbon capture and storage, which technically involves sequestration but is usually deployed in processes that desequester more carbon than they sequester.

I propose 1) Retitling this section as "Carbon dioxide removal" and 2) Moving the two sentences on CCS to the end of the first paragraph in the "Clean energy" section. Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 20:11, 25 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Done. Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 20:36, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Paper about our work & suggestions

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A paper by Olivia Steiert came out on the work we do here, analysing how our group dynamics and our interpretation of policies and guidelines resulted in the current article.

The paper analyses whether we consider climate change as an event (vs process), and if we call it a crisis. It's somewhat critical of us doing neither sufficiently clearly. The paper doesn't give that many pointers how we could achieve this however. We've made progress over the last 6 years in changing the article to be more about climate change now, rather than climate change in the future, but I wonder if there is more to do here. (changing the crisis framing is a discussion I won't reopen). If there are no objections, I might send Steiert an email asking her to join us. In the meantime, I'm suggesting two changes in the lead

The current rise in global average temperature is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution -->

Amplified warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost, retreat of glaciers and sea ice decline --> something in the present tense. I'd suggest leaving out polar amplification too. The quote doesn't fully capture this sentence anyway, and the source doesn't make the connection between polar amplification and these specific impacts. —Femke 🐦 (talk) 19:44, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for sharing this, interesting article. The study uses the May 2022 version of this article, I wonder what she'd think of the current version.
As for the sentence, The current rise in..., I believe we had added "since the Industrial Revolution" to clarify what is meant by current. Bogazicili (talk) 17:50, 31 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Article housekeeping

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Thanks Femke for removing unused references and other tidying. I could pitch in to help with that kind of thing for an hour or two this week. What else needs to be done? Clayoquot (talk | contribs) 02:26, 31 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Just to let you know, I intend to clean up after myself, but got sidetracked. For the areas I edited, some of the citations aren't to chapters but to overall IPCC reports. I'll be fixing those. Bogazicili (talk) 16:54, 31 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]